Analyst Upside

AU · rank #4 · 2026-06-03

SMTC

NASDAQ · $15.52B

verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
1.509
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
+$0.97
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
12
Insider signal (90d)
$0 across 0 unique buyers.
-0.099
Analyst upside
Consensus target $204.83
+22.9%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
+7.04%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
4.79
Gross margin TTM+52.4%
52w high$172.36
Market cap$15.52B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed.

Summary

Semtech is a mixed-signal semiconductor and IoT connectivity company whose portfolio spans legacy analog/ASIC products and acquired Sierra Wireless cellular/IoT modules, targeting industrial, smart metering, and LoRa-based long-range low-power applications.

Rationale

12 net analyst revisions in 30 days combined with 22.9% upside and 4.79/5 rating suggest consensus is repricing a recovery narrative (Q4 beat, improving IoT/industrial demand, margin expansion from cost synergies) that quant models are capturing ahead of broader recognition.

Material risks

  • 1Geopolitical exposure to U.S.–China export controls and communications/IoT supply-chain scrutiny could trigger sudden licensing constraints or market access loss in key regions, particularly for LoRa and cellular modules sold into Asia-Pacific.
  • 2Competitive displacement risk from larger diversified semiconductor and connectivity vendors in LPWA and cellular IoT modules, combined with persistent weakness in communications and datacenter end-markets, could pressure pricing and slow LoRa ecosystem adoption despite near-term demand recovery.

Verdict reasoning

two_stage score=+2/3 verdicts={'gemini': 'CAUTION', 'claude': 'PROCEED', 'openai': 'PROCEED'} brief=caller-supplied