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Strategy · AU

Analyst Upside

Composite of EPS revisions, insider purchases, analyst target spread, and momentum acceleration. Monthly rebalance.

Live · paper
+9.42%
Indexed 109.4 / 100 · active · as of 2026-06-04
Live max DD -0.98%σ +1.45%downside σ +0.40%7 sessions
Backtest expected Aug 2026
Signal B&H +19.98% · hypothetical, since 2026-05-21

Backtest

Out-of-sample · walk-forward

How the strategy would have performed before going live, simulated on historical data with monthly rebalances.

Backtest not yet available

Analyst-Upside relies on analyst-revision and insider snapshots that accumulate over time. A credible backtest becomes available once 13+ weeks of snapshots have been collected — expected by August 2026.

Live performance

Daily mark-to-market on the live IBKR paper account, indexed to 100.

2026-05-26 → 2026-06-04
109.4 / 100
+9.42%
05-26
100.3
+0.32%
05-27
101.4
+1.36%
05-28
100.4
+0.37%
05-29
101.8
+1.81%
06-01
103.7
+3.66%
06-02
107.7
+7.66%
06-03
108.4
+8.35%
06-04
109.4
+9.42%

Current picks

as of 2026-06-05
Ranked picks as of 2026-06-05: rank, ticker, exchange, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown.
#TickerMarket capDrill-down
01
SITM
NASDAQ
$18.51Bconviction →
02
WULF
NASDAQ
$12.67Bconviction →
03
SMTC
NASDAQ
$15.52Bconviction →
04
MTSI
NASDAQ
$29.78Bconviction →
05
TSEM
NASDAQ
$30.05Bconviction →
06
SVCO
NASDAQ
$357Mconviction →
07
CORT
NASDAQ
$8.04Bconviction →
08
VLN
NYSE
$344Mconviction →
09
BLZE
NASDAQ
$534Mconviction →
10
PAYS
NASDAQ
$390Mconviction →

Recent rebalances

Last 5sessions before today's pick. Click any ticker for the full conviction breakdown.

2026-06-04

Ranked picks as of 2026-06-04: rank, ticker, exchange, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown.
#TickerMarket capDrill-down
01
SITM
NASDAQ
$18.51Bconviction →
02
WULF
NASDAQ
$12.67Bconviction →
03
SMTC
NASDAQ
$15.52Bconviction →
04
MTSI
NASDAQ
$29.78Bconviction →
05
SVCO
NASDAQ
$357Mconviction →
06
TSEM
NASDAQ
$30.05Bconviction →
07
LEGN
NASDAQ
$6.74Bconviction →
08
BLZE
NASDAQ
$459Mconviction →
09
CORT
NASDAQ
$7.15Bconviction →
10
DELL
NYSE
$302.67Bconviction →

2026-06-03

Ranked picks as of 2026-06-03: rank, ticker, exchange, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown.
#TickerMarket capDrill-down
01
SITM
NASDAQ
$18.51Bconviction →
02
SVCO
NASDAQ
$357Mconviction →
03
TSEM
NASDAQ
$30.05Bconviction →
04
SMTC
NASDAQ
$15.52Bconviction →
05
CORT
NASDAQ
$7.15Bconviction →
06
LEGN
NASDAQ
$6.74Bconviction →

2026-06-02

Ranked picks as of 2026-06-02: rank, ticker, exchange, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown.
#TickerMarket capDrill-down
01
FLEX
NASDAQ
$54.23Bconviction →
02
GRRR
NASDAQ
$585Mconviction →
03
MRVL
NASDAQ
$192.12Bconviction →
04
SVCO
NASDAQ
$357Mconviction →
05
CORT
NASDAQ
$7.15Bconviction →
06
HIMX
NASDAQ
$3.82Bconviction →

2026-06-01

Ranked picks as of 2026-06-01: rank, ticker, exchange, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown.
#TickerMarket capDrill-down
01
WULF
NASDAQ
$12.67Bconviction →
02
AMD
NASDAQ
$762.32Bconviction →
03
SITM
NASDAQ
$19.23Bconviction →
04
MU
NASDAQ
$846.93Bconviction →
05
FLEX
NASDAQ
$48.53Bconviction →
06
TSEM
NASDAQ
$33.73Bconviction →
07
CORT
NASDAQ
$7.15Bconviction →

2026-05-29

Ranked picks as of 2026-05-29: rank, ticker, exchange, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown.
#TickerMarket capDrill-down
01
SITM
NASDAQ
$19.23Bconviction →
02
FLEX
NASDAQ
$48.53Bconviction →
03
SVCO
NASDAQ
$326Mconviction →
04
TSEM
NASDAQ
$33.73Bconviction →
05
HIMX
NASDAQ
$3.67Bconviction →
06
FROG
NASDAQ
$8.81Bconviction →

How Analyst Upside picks names.

Buys names where multiple independent signals agree the consensus is too low. EPS estimates trending up, insiders putting their own money in, sell-side targets sitting well above spot — those signals rarely align without reason.

  1. 01

    Universe filter

    US listings, market cap > $300M, sufficient analyst coverage (target prices, ratings available).

  2. 02

    EPS revisions (30d)

    Net up-revisions in EPS estimates over the past 30 days. Captures the post-earnings drift effect.

  3. 03

    Insider activity (90d)

    Net dollar volume of insider purchases minus sales over 90 days, scaled to position size. Excludes 10b5-1 scheduled sales.

  4. 04

    Analyst upside

    Spread between consensus 12-month target and current price. Premium for names with high spread AND recent EPS upgrades.

  5. 05

    Momentum acceleration

    Difference between recent 3-month and 12-month momentum. Names where momentum is improving, not fading.

  6. 06

    Composite score + AI research

    All factors winsorised, z-scored, and weighted into a composite. Top 5 selected. Each pick gets an AI research card (same Gemini pipeline as QM) before order placement.

Rebalance cadence
Monthly on first business day. Currently testing daily (2026-05-14 → 2026-05-31).
Universe
US mid-to-large-cap equity with analyst coverage (~200 names)