AU · rank #5 · 2026-09-10
PGY
NASDAQ · $1.84B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 2.706 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.20 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 7 |
| Insider signal (90d) $250,468 across 1 unique buyers. | 3.000 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $29.20 | +35.2% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +50.45% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.60 |
| Gross margin TTM | +43.4% |
| 52w high | $44.99 |
| Market cap (USD) | $1.84B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Pagaya operates an AI-driven credit underwriting and distribution network for bank and fintech partners, monetizing via fees on loan volume and capital markets securitizations.
Rationale
100% revision agreement across 10 analysts, a 35% consensus upside, record Q2 2026 earnings with a 48% surprise, and raised full-year guidance collectively reinforce the analyst_upside signal as fundamentally grounded rather than sentiment-only.
Material risks
- 1Large bank and fintech partners building proprietary AI underwriting in-house is the primary thesis-breaker, as Pagaya's entire revenue model depends on partners choosing its network over internal alternatives.
- 2Securitization market dependence — illustrated by the $400M auto deal — means a credit spread widening or ABS investor pullback could rapidly compress network volume and fee revenue, the core growth driver.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.