AU · rank #4 · 2026-09-08
PGY
NASDAQ · $1.84B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 2.708 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.20 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 7 |
| Insider signal (90d) $250,468 across 1 unique buyers. | 3.000 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $29.20 | +27.1% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +68.04% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.60 |
| Gross margin TTM | +43.4% |
| 52w high | $44.99 |
| Market cap (USD) | $1.84B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Pagaya operates an AI-driven credit underwriting and distribution network embedded in bank and fintech workflows, monetizing via fees on loan volume and capital markets securitizations.
Rationale
100% revision agreement across 10 analysts, a 48% earnings surprise, raised full-year guidance, and 27% analyst upside collectively reinforce that the analyst_upside signal reflects genuine fundamental re-rating momentum rather than stale sentiment.
Material risks
- 1Large bank and fintech partners building proprietary AI underwriting in-house is a concrete displacement risk that could erode Pagaya's embedded position and shrink network volume — the most direct thesis-breaker for a platform-dependency model.
- 2Reliance on securitization markets to fund loan originations means a credit spread widening or ABS investor pullback (as seen in stress periods) could simultaneously compress margins and constrain network volume growth, hitting both the P&L and the re-rating thesis.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.