AU · rank #3 · 2026-09-09
PGY
NASDAQ · $1.84B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 2.719 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.20 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 7 |
| Insider signal (90d) $250,468 across 1 unique buyers. | 3.000 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $29.20 | +32.2% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +50.56% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.60 |
| Gross margin TTM | +43.4% |
| 52w high | $44.99 |
| Market cap (USD) | $1.84B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Pagaya operates an AI-driven credit underwriting and distribution network for banks, fintechs, and credit unions, monetizing via fees on loan volume and capital markets structures like securitizations.
Rationale
The analyst_upside_pct of 32% is backed by hard fundamental momentum — a 48% earnings surprise, 90-day EPS revisions of $0.59, 100% revision agreement across 10 analysts, and record Q2 GAAP profitability — making the consensus target lift credible rather than sentiment-only.
Material risks
- 1Large bank and fintech partners building in-house AI underwriting capabilities is a live, named risk that could erode Pagaya's network volume concentration and fee revenue without warning, directly breaking the platform-dependency thesis.
- 2The securitization-dependent funding model (e.g., the $400M auto deal) ties network volume growth to capital market appetite for ABS, meaning a credit spread widening or investor risk-off episode could abruptly constrain origination capacity and compress margins.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.