AU · rank #3 · 2026-09-04
PGY
NASDAQ · $1.84B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 3.352 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.54 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 7 |
| Insider signal (90d) $250,468 across 1 unique buyers. | 2.409 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $29.20 | +27.6% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +66.82% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.60 |
| Gross margin TTM | +43.4% |
| 52w high | $44.99 |
| Market cap (USD) | $1.84B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Pagaya operates a capital-light AI underwriting network embedded in bank and fintech origination systems, routing approved consumer loans to institutional investors via ABS and forward-flow structures.
Rationale
The analyst_upside signal is reinforced by 100% revision agreement across 9 analysts, a 48% Q2 earnings surprise, a 25% guidance raise, and accelerating network volume growth that gives the consensus price target meaningful fundamental backing rather than pure sentiment.
Material risks
- 1Major lending partners (U.S. Bank, Ally, SoFi) could internalize AI decisioning or consolidate volume onto Upstart, directly attacking the "bottleneck-solver" moat that justifies the analyst consensus and premium target multiples.
- 2The 44.5% target price dispersion among analysts signals deep disagreement on terminal value, and any ABS market disruption or credit-cycle deterioration could compress network volumes and collapse the fee-revenue model that underpins the raised guidance.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.