Analyst Upside

AU · rank #16 · 2026-09-09

TKMS

XETRA · EUR · $6.40B (USD)

SignalBuy1.6strength 1.6 / 10
verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
0.758
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
+$0.15
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
4
Insider signal (90d)
Analyst upside
Consensus target $111.14
+28.3%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
+14.22%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
Gross margin TTM+17.9%
52w high$108.80
Market cap (USD)$6.40B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

TKMS AG & Co KGaA is a newly listed German naval shipbuilder specializing in submarines and frigates, operating on long government procurement cycles with a €25+ billion order backlog anchored in named NATO-aligned programs.

Rationale

100% analyst revision agreement, 28% consensus upside, and accelerating EPS revisions across 7/30/60/90-day windows are directly reinforced by a guidance upgrade, 19% revenue growth, and a record backlog expansion including the €6.3 billion MEKO A-200 frigate award — the analyst community is chasing real contract newsflow, not sentiment.

Material risks

  • 1With only 5 analysts covering a recently spun-off name, the 40.5% target price dispersion signals deep uncertainty about margin normalization — spin-off administrative drag already compressed EBIT margin to 5.8% from 6.1%, and any further cost overruns on fixed-price naval contracts could trigger sharp downward revisions that unwind the entire upside thesis.
  • 2Negative free cash flow of ~€72 million through H1 and the inherently lumpy, milestone-driven cash conversion of multi-year shipbuilding programs create meaningful near-term liquidity pressure that could force dilutive financing despite the strong backlog headline.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Proceed
Claude
Proceed
Gemini
Proceed