AU · rank #16 · 2026-09-07
TKMS
XETRA · EUR · $6.16B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 0.678 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.15 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 3 |
| Insider signal (90d) | — |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $111.14 | +33.6% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +9.55% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | — |
| Gross margin TTM | +17.9% |
| 52w high | $108.80 |
| Market cap (USD) | $6.16B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TKMS AG & Co KGaA is Germany's premier naval shipbuilder, producing submarines and frigates for NATO-aligned governments, listed on Xetra since October 2025 with a €20–25 billion order backlog anchoring multi-year revenue visibility.
Rationale
100% analyst revision agreement, a 33.6% consensus upside, and accelerating EPS revisions across 7/30/60/90-day windows are directly reinforced by a 19% YoY revenue surge, a guidance upgrade, and the €6.3 billion MEKO A-200 frigate win that structurally expands the backlog — this is fundamental momentum, not sentiment drift.
Material risks
- 1Margin compression is already visible (adjusted EBIT margin slipped to 5.8% from 6.1% YoY and 5.1% in H1) due to spin-off costs and campaign expenses, and with only 5 analysts covering a recently listed name, consensus estimates may be insufficiently stress-tested on cost escalation in long-cycle fixed-price naval contracts.
- 2High analyst target dispersion of 40.5% on a thin 5-analyst panel signals wide uncertainty around valuation, and negative free cash flow of ~€72 million through H1 reflects the cash-consumption profile of long-cycle shipbuilding that could pressure sentiment if working capital needs intensify.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.