AU · rank #4 · 2026-09-07
PGY
NASDAQ · $1.84B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 2.766 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.20 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 7 |
| Insider signal (90d) $250,468 across 1 unique buyers. | 3.000 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $29.20 | +27.1% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +64.85% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.60 |
| Gross margin TTM | +43.4% |
| 52w high | $44.99 |
| Market cap (USD) | $1.84B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Pagaya operates a capital-light AI underwriting network embedded in bank and fintech origination systems, routing approved consumer loans to institutional investors via ABS and forward-flow structures.
Rationale
The analyst_upside_pct of 27% is backed by 10 analysts at a near-unanimous 100% revision agreement, a 48% Q2 earnings surprise, full-year guidance raised ~25%, and accelerating network volume growth—fundamentals that reinforce rather than merely sentiment-drive the consensus price target lift.
Material risks
- 1Partner disintermediation is real and growing—Upstart is now listed as a Pagaya lending partner, blurring the competitive line, and any top-5 bank partner (U.S. Bank, Ally) building proprietary second-look AI would directly hollow out Pagaya's middleman fee stream.
- 2With 44.5% analyst target dispersion and heavy ABS market dependency (~$7.5B 2026 issuance), a credit-cycle shock or securitization market disruption would simultaneously compress network volumes, fee revenue, and the funding model in a single correlated drawdown.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.