Analyst Upside

AU · rank #4 · 2026-09-08

CDR

GPW · PLN · $6.38B (USD)

SignalHold
verdict · CAUTION

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
-2.447
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
-$2.04
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
0
Insider signal (90d)
Analyst upside
Consensus target $236.92
+0.1%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
+8.70%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
3.13
Gross margin TTM+92.6%
52w high$297.00
Market cap (USD)$6.38B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

CD PROJEKT SA is a leading Polish video game developer specializing in premium, narrative-driven AAA role-playing franchises, most notably *The Witcher* and *Cyberpunk 2077*.

Rationale

The analyst upside signal is reinforced by exceptional operational efficiency, featuring a 92.6% gross margin and a massive H1 2026 earnings beat (net profit up 37% YoY with a 57% net margin) [RECENT_DEVELOPMENTS, FINANCIAL_NOTES], indicating that negative 30-day EPS revisions are lagging real-time performance.

Material risks

  • 1Pipeline execution risk and prolonged release gaps due to the confirmed delay of the next major Witcher-related expansion to 2027 [RECENT_DEVELOPMENTS, TOP_RISKS], exposing the company to high near-term back-catalog concentration.
  • 2Strategic and capital allocation strain from the aggressive 5 billion PLN cumulative net profit target (2026–2029) required for the management incentive program [RECENT_DEVELOPMENTS, TOP_RISKS], which has already led to 100% of 2025 earnings being diverted away from shareholders into reserves.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 1 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Caution
Claude
Caution
Gemini
Proceed