Analyst Upside

AU · rank #11 · 2026-07-21

SIMO

NASDAQ · $11.07B (USD)

SignalBuy3.3strength 3.3 / 10
verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
1.204
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
+$0.55
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
0
Insider signal (90d)
$0 across 0 unique buyers.
-0.163
Analyst upside
Consensus target $281.20
+11.3%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
+17.19%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
4.33
Gross margin TTM+48.1%
52w high$355.00
Market cap (USD)$11.07B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

Silicon Motion (SIMO) is a fabless NAND flash controller supplier for client SSDs and embedded eMMC/UFS storage, riding a broad-based upcycle in PC, smartphone, and AI-related storage demand.

Rationale

Record Q1 2026 revenue of $342.1m (+105% YoY), a 21% earnings surprise, and Q2 guidance implying another 15–20% sequential growth directly reinforce the analyst_upside and EPS revision signals, with 8 analysts holding a strong buy-leaning consensus and one target raise in the past 30 days.

Material risks

  • 1NAND vendors and large OEMs expanding in-house controller designs is a concrete, named disqualifier for this strategy — SIMO's merchant controller moat is IP/firmware-based rather than sole-source, making share loss a real and ongoing threat as customers scale.
  • 2Non-GAAP gross margin already declined 200 bps sequentially to 47.2% despite record revenue, and a -$31.2m operating cash flow quarter driven by a ~$94m working-capital build signals execution risk if the demand ramp stalls or reverses.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Proceed
Claude
Proceed
Gemini
Error