Analyst Upside

AU · rank #4 · 2026-07-22

ALR

GPW · PLN · $4.76B (USD)

SignalHold
verdict · CAUTION

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
0.905
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
+$0.16
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
1
Insider signal (90d)
Analyst upside
Consensus target $144.08
+4.3%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
+7.81%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
4.63
Gross margin TTM+98.4%
52w high$143.60
Market cap (USD)$4.76B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

Alior Bank S.A. operates as a diversified Polish retail and SME bank focusing on high-margin consumer lending, leasing, and digital banking [RECENT_DEVELOPMENTS, COMPETITIVE_POSITION].

Rationale

Strong Q1 2026 earnings beating consensus, steadily declining NPLs, and an S&P investment-grade upgrade support the model's 100% analyst revision agreement and upward momentum [RECENT_DEVELOPMENTS, BUSINESS_STATUS].

Material risks

  • 1Margin compression and net interest income sensitivity to falling Polish interest rates [TOP_RISKS].
  • 2Legal and regulatory exposure to CHF mortgage litigation and "sankcja kredytu darmowego" consumer-credit disputes driving potential provisioning hikes [TOP_RISKS].

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 1 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Caution
Claude
Caution
Gemini
Proceed