Analyst Upside

AU · rank #12 · 2026-07-22

AMAT

NASDAQ · $448.23B (USD)

SignalBuy3.3strength 3.3 / 10
verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
1.180
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
+$0.45
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
6
Insider signal (90d)
$0 across 0 unique buyers.
-0.197
Analyst upside
Consensus target $623.06
+10.4%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
-11.03%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
4.49
Gross margin TTM+49.0%
52w high$739.67
Market cap (USD)$448.23B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

Applied Materials is the leading wafer fab equipment supplier specializing in deposition, etch, and materials engineering tools critical to advanced semiconductor node and 3D structure manufacturing.

Rationale

The analyst_upside signal is strongly reinforced by 15 target price raises in 30 days, 100% EPS revision agreement across 34 analysts, and a Q3 guide implying ~23% revenue and ~36% EPS growth YoY — this is broad, accelerating conviction, not a lone-wolf upgrade.

Material risks

  • 1U.S. export controls on advanced chip equipment to China represent a concrete, already-quantified $600–710M 2026 revenue headwind that could widen if restrictions expand, directly compressing the earnings trajectory underpinning analyst target raises.
  • 2Momentum acceleration is deeply negative (-11%), signaling that price has already partially de-rated relative to the improving fundamental story, meaning the gap between analyst targets and market price may reflect risk premium rather than pure upside opportunity.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Proceed
Claude
Proceed
Gemini
Error