AU · rank #4 · 2026-07-23
ALR
GPW · PLN · $4.71B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 1.101 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.16 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 1 |
| Insider signal (90d) | — |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $144.08 | +5.6% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +10.45% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.63 |
| Gross margin TTM | +98.4% |
| 52w high | $143.60 |
| Market cap (USD) | $4.71B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Alior Bank is a Polish retail and SME-focused lender with ~104.7 bn PLN in assets, distinguished by above-sector ROE (~19.6% for 2025), a high NIM (~5.6%), and strong digital/mobile growth.
Rationale
100% analyst revision agreement, unanimous upward EPS revisions across 7d/30d/60d/90d horizons, and a strong buy-skewed consensus (mean 2.0 on 1–5 scale) reflect genuine fundamental momentum — Q1 2026 net profit beat consensus despite tax headwinds, and mortgage originations surging 84% y/y validate the lending growth narrative underpinning the upgrades.
Material risks
- 1NIM compression from Polish rate cuts is already materializing (NII slightly down y/y in 2025, Q1 2026 profit -15% y/y), and further rate declines could structurally erode the high-margin consumer/SME spread that justifies the premium valuation embedded in analyst targets.
- 2Escalating "sankcja kredytu darmowego" consumer-credit litigation and CHF mortgage cases represent an open-ended provision risk that could rapidly absorb capital and force earnings downgrades, directly disconfirming the upward revision trend that drives this screen.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.