AU · rank #2 · 2026-07-23
TOI
NASDAQ · $535M (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 3.122 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.06 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 1 |
| Insider signal (90d) $235,110 across 1 unique buyers. | 3.000 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $8.40 | +58.8% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +52.12% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 5.00 |
| Gross margin TTM | +15.1% |
| 52w high | $6.67 |
| Market cap (USD) | $535M |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Oncology Institute (TOI) is one of the largest value-based community oncology groups in the U.S., generating capitated Medicare Advantage revenue across five states alongside a rapidly scaling specialty pharmacy segment.
Rationale
The 58.8% analyst upside, 100% revision agreement across all four covering analysts, two target raises in 30 days, a 77% Q1 earnings surprise, and 52% momentum acceleration collectively reinforce the analyst_upside signal as grounded in genuine fundamental inflection—not mere sentiment—given the 41% revenue growth and raised FCF guidance.
Material risks
- 1Heavy concentration in value-based/capitated Medicare Advantage contracts means any CMS rate reset, Enhancing Oncology Model policy change, or MA plan repricing in Florida (the ~200,000-life expansion effective July 2026) could directly collapse the revenue and margin trajectory underpinning every analyst target.
- 2The $75 million OrbiMed term loan leaves a still-GAAP-loss-making, sub-$600M market cap company with meaningful debt service obligations; if specialty pharmacy growth or capitated enrollment disappoints, the path to positive FCF narrows quickly and refinancing risk re-emerges well before 2031.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.