Analyst Upside

AU · rank #18 · 2026-07-24

AMAT

NASDAQ · $448.23B (USD)

SignalBuy1.1strength 1.1 / 10
verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
0.863
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
+$0.45
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
6
Insider signal (90d)
$0 across 0 unique buyers.
-0.121
Analyst upside
Consensus target $623.06
+10.7%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
-15.22%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
4.49
Gross margin TTM+49.0%
52w high$739.67
Market cap (USD)$448.23B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

Applied Materials is the world's largest semiconductor equipment company, supplying deposition, etch, and inspection tools critical to advanced chip manufacturing at TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Rationale

With 15 analyst target raises in 30 days, 100% revision agreement, EPS estimates revised up $2.74 over 90 days, and a record Q2 beat with Q3 guidance implying ~13% sequential revenue acceleration to $8.95B, the analyst_upside signal is firmly grounded in fundamental earnings momentum rather than sentiment drift.

Material risks

  • 1Analyst target dispersion of 87% signals wide disagreement on the terminal value of AMAT's AI/gate-all-around capex cycle, meaning the 10.7% upside to consensus target could evaporate if leading-edge customer CapEx (TSMC, Samsung) is deferred or concentrated in EUV-centric steps where ASML captures share.
  • 2Momentum acceleration of -15% flags that price has already decelerated sharply relative to the earnings upgrade cycle, suggesting the market may be discounting export control risk to China (historically ~30% of AMAT revenue) that the analyst consensus has not yet fully haircut.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Proceed
Claude
Proceed
Gemini
Error