AU · rank #2 · 2026-07-24
TOI
NASDAQ · $535M (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 3.261 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.06 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 1 |
| Insider signal (90d) $235,110 across 1 unique buyers. | 3.000 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $8.40 | +65.7% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +46.27% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 5.00 |
| Gross margin TTM | +15.1% |
| 52w high | $6.67 |
| Market cap (USD) | $535M |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
The Oncology Institute (TOI) operates a network of value-based community oncology clinics monetizing capitated payer contracts and in-house pharmacy services, targeting ~$640M in 2026 revenue near adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
Rationale
A 77% Q1 2026 earnings surprise, 100% analyst revision agreement, 65.7% analyst upside, and accelerating price momentum collectively reinforce the analyst_upside signal as grounded in genuine fundamental inflection rather than pure sentiment drift.
Material risks
- 1Capitated contract concentration means a single payer renegotiation or reimbursement cut could simultaneously collapse revenue visibility and gross margin (currently a thin 15.1%), invalidating the profitability path the entire bull thesis depends on.
- 2Persistent net losses, increasing financial leverage, and negative-to-breakeven free cash flow guidance leave TOI dependent on external financing if revenue growth or margin targets slip even modestly, creating dilution risk at a $535M market cap.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.