Analyst Upside

AU · rank #3 · 2026-07-27

ALR

GPW · PLN · $4.60B (USD)

SignalStrong Buy8.6strength 8.6 / 10
verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of all factors below.
0.890
EPS revisions (30d)
Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share).
+$0.16
Net revisions (30d)
Number of analysts revising upward minus downward.
1
Insider signal (90d)
Analyst upside
Consensus target $144.08
+8.0%
Momentum acceleration
3-month minus 12-month momentum.
+6.77%
Analyst rating
5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell.
4.63
Gross margin TTM+98.4%
52w high$143.60
Market cap (USD)$4.60B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

Alior Bank is a mid-sized Polish diversified lender competing on high-margin retail and SME lending with a growing digital franchise and a 5.88% NIM.

Rationale

Unanimous upward EPS revisions across 7 analysts over 30/60/90-day windows, a strong Q2 2025 earnings beat driven by falling cost of risk, and accelerating price momentum collectively validate the analyst_upside signal for ALR.

Material risks

  • 1NIM compression (down 8 bps in Q1 2025) is the most direct threat to the earnings revision cycle — if Polish rate cuts accelerate, the consensus upgrade trend that drives this signal could reverse sharply and quickly.
  • 2High analyst target dispersion of 24.6% signals meaningful disagreement on fair value despite unanimous revision direction, suggesting the 8% upside could be fragile if the 2025–2027 strategy execution disappoints on mortgage growth or digital monetization.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Proceed
Gemini
Proceed
Claude
Proceed