AU · rank #5 · 2026-10-19
PKN
GPW · PLN · $46.24B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | -0.091 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.57 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 3 |
| Insider signal (90d) | — |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $156.39 | +0.9% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | -14.71% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 3.60 |
| Gross margin TTM | +21.6% |
| 52w high | $164.12 |
| Market cap (USD) | $46.24B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ORLEN SA is Poland's dominant integrated energy group operating across refining, petrochemicals, retail fuel distribution, gas infrastructure, and power generation.
Rationale
The analyst upside signal is reinforced by a 25.2% Q2 earnings surprise, 100% positive 30-day revision agreement, low net debt leverage (0.1x EBITDA), and progress on the 1.2 GW Baltic Power offshore wind project.
Material risks
- 1Regulatory intervention via an estimated PLN 2 billion windfall tax on 2026 fuel profits and potential margin compression from regulated gas tariff pass-through lags.
- 2Second-half 2026 earnings drag from scheduled refinery and upstream maintenance shutdowns, including major turnarounds at the Płock complex.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.