AU · rank #7 · 2026-10-19
SM
NYSE · $9.40B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 2.156 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.82 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 5 |
| Insider signal (90d) $0 across 0 unique buyers. | -0.186 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $44.56 | +12.8% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +0.25% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.06 |
| Gross margin TTM | +86.5% |
| 52w high | $41.56 |
| Market cap (USD) | $9.40B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
SM Energy is a scaled four-basin U.S. shale producer (Permian, DJ, South Texas, Uinta) formed via the January 2026 Civitas merger, generating ~440 MBoE/d with ~$1.4B quarterly EBITDA.
Rationale
The analyst_upside signal is reinforced by 5 net upward EPS revisions in 30 days, 85.7% revision agreement, a 12.8% consensus price target gap, and a Q2 earnings beat of 12.05% — suggesting analysts are systematically re-rating SM higher post-Civitas integration.
Material risks
- 1At $6.25B net debt with no moat on realized prices, a sustained oil price decline compresses free cash flow and could force capital reallocation away from the growth drilling that underpins the analyst upgrade thesis.
- 2Target price dispersion of 58.4% signals wide analyst disagreement on SM's post-merger valuation, meaning the 12.8% upside figure is statistically noisy and the consensus target could compress rather than be achieved.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.