AU · rank #4 · 2026-10-22
PKN
GPW · PLN · $46.43B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | -0.411 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.57 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 3 |
| Insider signal (90d) | — |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $156.39 | +0.9% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | -16.45% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 3.60 |
| Gross margin TTM | +21.6% |
| 52w high | $164.12 |
| Market cap (USD) | $46.43B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ORLEN SA is Poland’s dominant integrated energy group spanning oil refining, retail fuels, petrochemicals, power generation, and natural gas infrastructure across Central Europe.
Rationale
The analyst upside thesis is reinforced by a 25.2% Q2 earnings surprise and 100% positive 30-day EPS revisions (+0.57 USD) backed by PLN 15.2 billion in H1 operating cash flow and progress on the 1.2 GW Baltic Power offshore wind farm.
Material risks
- 1An estimated PLN 2.0 billion regulatory windfall tax charge against 2026 fuel profits directly impairs net income and threatens forward estimate momentum.
- 2Scheduled H2 2026 refinery and upstream maintenance, including the Płock facility shutdown, risks depressing downstream volumes and operational earnings.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.