AU · rank #16 · 2026-10-23
ESTC
NYSE · $10.04B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 0.953 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.00 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 12 |
| Insider signal (90d) $0 across 0 unique buyers. | -0.207 |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $111.52 | +13.6% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +64.19% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.13 |
| Gross margin TTM | +75.6% |
| 52w high | $108.00 |
| Market cap (USD) | $10.04B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Elastic NV operates a subscription-led unified platform for AI-powered search, observability, and security built on Elasticsearch, with Cloud representing ~49% of revenue and growing 20% YoY.
Rationale
The 13.6% analyst upside, 29-analyst coverage base, 71% revision agreement, strong Q1 earnings beat (+19.9% surprise), and accelerating price momentum collectively reinforce the analyst_upside signal as grounded in fundamental re-rating rather than pure sentiment drift.
Material risks
- 1Cloud hyperscalers (AWS OpenSearch, Azure AI Search, Google) are actively bundling vector search, observability, and AI-investigation natively into their stacks, directly threatening Elastic's platform differentiation and pricing power at the infrastructure layer where most Cloud revenue originates.
- 2The 1% MoM Elastic Cloud growth figure signals potential consumption-model stagnation in self-service/SMB cohorts, and with analyst_net_upgrades_90d at -1 and zero insider buying, the upside thesis rests entirely on target price drift rather than accelerating fundamental conviction.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.