AU · rank #13 · 2026-10-23
IMCD
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $6.59B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of all factors below. | 0.287 |
|---|---|
| EPS revisions (30d) Change in consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days ($/share). | +$0.06 |
| Net revisions (30d) Number of analysts revising upward minus downward. | 2 |
| Insider signal (90d) | — |
| Analyst upside Consensus target $117.36 | +16.7% |
| Momentum acceleration 3-month minus 12-month momentum. | +11.92% |
| Analyst rating 5 = Strong Buy, 1 = Strong Sell. | 4.29 |
| Gross margin TTM | +25.0% |
| 52w high | $105.55 |
| Market cap (USD) | $6.59B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
IMCD NV is an asset-light global specialty chemicals and ingredients distributor that connects fragmented producers with customers requiring formulation, regulatory, and application support across life sciences, food, coatings, and personal care end markets.
Rationale
The 16.7% analyst upside, 100% revision agreement across 10 analysts, and positive 30/60/90-day EPS revision trend are reinforced by concrete H1 2026 results showing 11% constant-currency revenue growth, 29% FCF growth, and Q2 organic gross-profit recovery to +7% after a Q1 stumble — giving the analyst upgrade cycle a fundamental anchor rather than pure sentiment.
Material risks
- 1Acquisition-driven margin dilution is already visible (gross margin down 70bps to ~24.9% in H1 2026) and the pipeline of lower-margin bolt-ons at 2.8x EBITDA leverage could compress earnings even as revenue grows, directly undermining the EPS revision thesis.
- 2IMCD's relationship- and service-based moat carries no order backlog or sole-source protection, meaning any supplier mandate loss or customer destocking episode — as seen in prior cycles — can rapidly reverse the organic growth momentum that underpins current analyst targets.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.