BN · rank #3 · 2026-07-20
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $48.61B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.62 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +21.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +31.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.92 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.15× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +20.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +19% |
| Market cap (USD) | $48.61B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is a specialist semiconductor equipment maker whose ALD and epitaxy tools are critical bottleneck process steps at leading logic/foundry nodes, including AI-driven advanced chip manufacturing.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver signal is directly reinforced by ASM's sole-source ALD position at advanced nodes, record 33.1% operating margins, 18.7% EPS beat, and AI/logic demand driving 16% constant-currency revenue growth with further analyst upside of ~21%.
Material risks
- 1Forecast double-digit China revenue decline in 2026 from export restrictions removes a meaningful demand pillar and could pressure near-term order flow, directly testing the revenue visibility that underpins the bottleneck-solver thesis.
- 2Any shift in leading-node process architecture away from ALD-intensive steps (e.g., competing deposition or self-aligned patterning approaches) would erode ASM's switching-cost moat and compress the premium margins the thesis depends on.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.