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Strategy · BN

Bottleneck Solvers

Companies relieving the economy's structural shortages: AI compute and power, critical minerals, advanced chips. Picked for forward growth, widening margins, and a reasonable price. Signal-driven, rebalanced daily.

Live · paper · Aggressive tranche
-2.39%
Indexed 97.6 / 100 · active · as of 2026-07-24
Live max DD -4.53%σ 1.19%downside σ 0.99%14 sessions
Signal B&H -9.02% · hypothetical, since 2026-06-25, marked through 2026-07-24

Signal sensitivity — drives Holdings, Recent activity & the curve

Portfolio · Holdings

What the strategy holds now

The book the strategy actually owns right now, by reporting currency, in % of book (no dollar amounts). It is signal-driven and rebalanced daily, but each name is held until its signal says exit (hold-until-exit, anti-churn) — so turnover stays low. A book can hold fewer names than the model ranks: positions are sized by rule — a volatility target, whole-share lots, per-name caps — with the remainder in cash (the Cash badge).

USD · 11 holdingsCash 62%as of 24 Jul 2026
USD holdings as of 24 Jul 2026: ticker, signal and strength coefficient, percent of book, percent of total capital, and exchange. Sorted by percent of book. Cash is 62% of capital.
TickerSignal% of book
AMAT
NASDAQ
Strong Buy6.114.5%
5.5% of capital
POWL
NASDAQ
Hold2.812.6%
4.8% of capital
TSM
NYSE
Strong Buy4.210.9%
4.1% of capital
AVGO
NASDAQ
Strong Buy10.010.3%
3.9% of capital
ELMT
NASDAQ
Buy2.19.7%
3.6% of capital
LRCX
NASDAQ
Strong Buy7.38.3%
3.1% of capital
VRT
NYSE
Buy3.87.9%
3.0% of capital
HWM
NYSE
Buy1.77.8%
3.0% of capital
ONTO
NYSE
Buy3.97.4%
2.8% of capital
NVDA
NASDAQ
Strong Buy8.75.6%
2.1% of capital
BE
NYSE
Strong Buy5.15.0%
1.9% of capital
EUR · 6 holdingsCash 49%as of 24 Jul 2026
EUR holdings as of 24 Jul 2026: ticker, signal and strength coefficient, percent of book, percent of total capital, and exchange. Sorted by percent of book. Cash is 49% of capital.
TickerSignal% of book
FII
PARIS
Buy1.819.1%
9.8% of capital
IFX
XETRA
Strong Buy5.018.4%
9.5% of capital
EXA
PARIS
Strong Buy3.417.7%
9.1% of capital
ASM
AMSTERDAM
Strong Buy6.317.5%
9.0% of capital
BESI
AMSTERDAM
Strong Buy10.013.9%
7.1% of capital
SAF
PARIS
Strong Buy4.413.4%
6.9% of capital

% of book is a name's weight within the invested sleeve (sums to 100%); % of capital is its share of the whole account, with the rest in cash (the Cash badge) — so a mostly-idle book reads low on capital and high on cash. Coefficient (1–10) is conviction/ranking — used for sort and entry/exit, not position size (positions are volatility-targeted and bought in whole shares, so weights are uneven and a cash remainder is deliberate). A held name can briefly show Sell: signals refresh daily and the exit executes at the next rebalance — or the book is in a defensive hold that pauses trading. A freshly launched book also deploys gradually: the volatility target and the daily turnover cap throttle how fast new positions enter, so cash runs high in the first weeks — ramp-up mechanics, not a defensive stance.

Recent activity

What changed at the last rebalance

Buys and sells from the most recent rebalance, per currency, as a share of the book (no dollar amounts). Low turnover is by design.

USDLast rebalance 27 Jul 2026
  • BoughtTSM10.8% of bookStrong Buy4.2
EURLast rebalance 27 Jul 2026
  • BoughtFII19.0% of bookBuy1.8
  • SoldSU16.5% of bookSellsignal exit

European rebalances land in the morning of their session and US ones after the US open, so a single day's blocks can appear at different times.

Live performance

Daily mark-to-market on the live IBKR paper account, indexed to 100 at funding, overlaid with the S&P 500 (a global anchor) and each market's primary local index, measured from the same date. For a non-USD book the S&P 500 is converted into that currency from the same date, so the comparison includes the exchange-rate move; the local index is already in that currency.

The US and EU books were relaunched onto new tranches at a flat base on 7 Jul 2026; earlier tranches are archived and no longer shown. Non-USD books are forward-only paper tracks: their walk-forward backtest is computed later (expected around September 2026), recalibrating the model's coefficients periodically, and does not gate publication.

funded 6 Jul 2026 24 Jul 2026
97.6 / 100
-2.39%
Aggressive -2.39%Conservative -1.33%
6 Jul
100.0
+0.00%
9 Jul
102.2
+2.24%
14 Jul
101.4
+1.37%
17 Jul
98.1
-1.88%
22 Jul
99.3
-0.74%
24 Jul
97.6
-2.39%
Daily live paper performance (Aggressive tranche) in USD, indexed to 100 at the tranche funding date, with benchmark cumulative returns rebased into USD from the same date. The first row is the funding point, where every series equals 100 by construction.
DateIndexCumulative returnS&P 500 cumulative returnNasdaq-100 cumulative return
6 Jul 2026100.0+0.00%+0.00%+0.00%
7 Jul 2026100.6+0.64%-0.48%-1.85%
8 Jul 2026101.4+1.39%-0.78%-1.57%
9 Jul 2026102.2+2.24%+0.06%+0.06%
10 Jul 2026102.0+1.98%+0.49%+0.37%
13 Jul 2026100.4+0.38%-0.28%-1.53%
14 Jul 2026101.4+1.37%+0.07%-0.43%
15 Jul 2026101.3+1.30%+0.47%-0.70%
16 Jul 202699.0-1.04%-0.07%-2.34%
17 Jul 202698.1-1.88%-1.06%-3.80%
20 Jul 202697.6-2.37%-1.22%-3.70%
21 Jul 202699.5-0.51%-0.40%-1.92%
22 Jul 202699.3-0.74%-0.52%-2.42%
23 Jul 202699.3-0.70%-1.74%-4.27%
24 Jul 202697.6-2.39%-1.64%-5.34%
Bottleneck Solvers · Aggressive · paper · USD
S&P 500
Nasdaq-100

Live model

Research signal — not a buy listas of 2026-07-27

What the strategy would pick if it rebalanced today.

The model ranks these names by signal daily; we hold the names we own until a name's signal says exit — the gap between this ranking and the Holdings above is our hold-until-exit (anti-churn) discipline. The ranking itself is the same for both tranches — the Aggressive/Conservative toggle only changes which signals trigger a trade, so it drives the Holdings and curve above, not this list. So this is a research signal, not a confirmed buy list.

Sort
Ranked picks as of 2026-07-27: rank, ticker with its exchange, signal and strength coefficient, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown. Grouped by reporting currency; each market is ranked independently.
#TickerSignalMarket cap (USD)Drill-down
USD · 20 picks
01
AVGO
NASDAQ
Strong Buy10.0$1.82Tconviction →
02
NVDA
NASDAQ
Strong Buy8.7$5.01Tconviction →
03
LRCX
NASDAQ
Strong Buy7.3$381.69Bconviction →
04
KLAC
NASDAQ
Strong Buy7.3$275.00Bconviction →
05
TER
NASDAQ
Strong Buy6.7$54.78Bconviction →
06
AMAT
NASDAQ
Strong Buy6.1$425.76Bconviction →
07
BE
NYSE
Strong Buy5.1$52.59Bconviction →
08
ARM
NASDAQ
Hold$277.71Bconviction →
09
TSM
NYSE
Strong Buy4.2$2.09Tconviction →
10
ONTO
NYSE
Hold$13.56Bconviction →
11
VRT
NYSE
Buy3.8$111.53Bconviction →
12
NVMI
NASDAQ
Buy3.6$13.93Bconviction →
13
POWL
NASDAQ
Sell$8.46Bconviction →
14
ACLS
NASDAQ
Sell$4.12Bconviction →
15
NXPI
NASDAQ
Sell$67.98Bconviction →
16
ELMT
NASDAQ
Buy2.1$427Mconviction →
17
HWM
NYSE
Buy1.7$115.74Bconviction →
18
CAMT
NASDAQ
Sell$6.90Bconviction →
19
ISSC
NASDAQ
Buy1.1$342Mconviction →
20
ENTG
NASDAQ
Sell$19.67Bconviction →
EUR · 12 picks
01
BESI
AMSTERDAM
Strong Buy10.0$20.50Bconviction →
02
AIXA
XETRA
Strong Buy7.8$5.17Bconviction →
03
ASM
AMSTERDAM
Strong Buy6.3$47.91Bconviction →
04
IFX
XETRA
Strong Buy5.0$95.44Bconviction →
05
SAF
PARIS
Strong Buy4.4$155.85Bconviction →
06
R3NK
XETRA
Strong Buy3.8$5.16Bconviction →
07
EXA
PARIS
Strong Buy3.4$2.40Bconviction →
08
AM
PARIS
Sell$26.29Bconviction →
09
NEX
PARIS
Sell$6.67Bconviction →
10
HAG
XETRA
Buy2.0$10.51Bconviction →
11
FII
PARIS
Buy1.8$3.49Bconviction →
12
DG
PARIS
Sell$74.67Bconviction →

Earlier model rankings

The model's daily rankings from earlier dates — historical model output, not executed trades. Click any ticker for the full conviction breakdown.

Sort
Ranked picks as of 2026-07-24: rank, ticker with its exchange, signal and strength coefficient, market cap, and a link to each pick's conviction breakdown. Grouped by reporting currency; each market is ranked independently.
#TickerSignalMarket cap (USD)Drill-down
USD · 20 picks
01
AVGO
NASDAQ
Hold$1.87Tconviction →
02
NVDA
NASDAQ
Strong Buy8.9$5.06Tconviction →
03
AMD
NASDAQ
Hold$887.75Bconviction →
04
KLAC
NASDAQ
Strong Buy7.1$285.72Bconviction →
05
LRCX
NASDAQ
Strong Buy6.8$399.91Bconviction →
06
TER
NASDAQ
Hold$58.51Bconviction →
07
AMAT
NASDAQ
Strong Buy5.6$446.84Bconviction →
08
ALAB
NASDAQ
Hold$56.05Bconviction →
09
TSM
NYSE
Strong Buy4.2$2.16Tconviction →
10
ARM
NASDAQ
Hold$302.31Bconviction →
11
BE
NYSE
Sell$61.81Bconviction →
12
VRT
NYSE
Sell$116.78Bconviction →
13
ONTO
NYSE
Sell$14.49Bconviction →
14
NVMI
NASDAQ
Buy3.3$14.48Bconviction →
15
POWL
NASDAQ
Sell$8.83Bconviction →
16
ACLS
NASDAQ
Sell$4.35Bconviction →
17
NXPI
NASDAQ
Sell$70.01Bconviction →
18
ELMT
NASDAQ
Buy1.7$447Mconviction →
19
HWM
NYSE
Buy1.5$114.87Bconviction →
20
NVT
NYSE
Sell$25.68Bconviction →
EUR · 15 picks
01
BESI
AMSTERDAM
Strong Buy10.0$20.71Bconviction →
02
AIXA
XETRA
Hold$5.18Bconviction →
03
ASM
AMSTERDAM
Strong Buy6.7$48.58Bconviction →
04
IFX
XETRA
Strong Buy5.5$96.81Bconviction →
05
SAF
PARIS
Strong Buy5.3$153.06Bconviction →
06
R3NK
XETRA
Strong Buy4.3$5.16Bconviction →
07
EXA
PARIS
Strong Buy3.9$2.40Bconviction →
08
AM
PARIS
Sell$26.70Bconviction →
09
SU
PARIS
Sell$170.18Bconviction →
10
LR
PARIS
Sell$40.24Bconviction →
11
FII
PARIS
Buy2.3$3.31Bconviction →
12
HO
PARIS
Buy2.3$55.70Bconviction →
13
HAG
XETRA
Buy2.3$10.25Bconviction →
14
MTX
XETRA
Buy1.9$20.46Bconviction →
15
AIR
PARIS
Sell$184.15Bconviction →

How Bottleneck Solvers picks names.

Buys the suppliers of whatever the economy is short of. When demand for compute, power, or critical materials runs far ahead of supply, the companies that own the scarce input get durable pricing power. The strategy tags each name to a bottleneck theme, then keeps only those growing fast, widening margins, AND still reasonably priced.

  1. 01

    Universe filter

    US and European listings with enough fundamental and analyst-estimate coverage to score. Each market carries its own liquidity floor, tied to a fixed entry-ticket size: a 20-day average daily turnover of at least $5M (US) or €250K (EU) — sized so a full position stays under ~0.4% of a name's daily volume.

  2. 02

    Bottleneck theme tag

    Each candidate is mapped to a structural-shortage theme (AI power and thermal infrastructure, critical minerals and shoring, advanced semiconductors, and more). Names with no bottleneck exposure are dropped. The theme map is frozen for a quarter at a time, and every theme carries a pre-registered condition under which its thesis counts as broken and the theme is retired — themes are re-derived quarterly, never quietly edited mid-quarter.

  3. 03

    Forward growth + margins

    Consensus forward revenue growth and forward net margin, plus margin expansion (forward minus trailing). Rewards companies that are growing AND getting more profitable, not buying growth at any cost.

  4. 04

    Valuation + balance sheet

    Forward PEG keeps the price sane relative to growth; debt-to-free-cash-flow screens out names whose balance sheet cannot fund the build-out.

  5. 05

    Estimate momentum

    A recent earnings-surprise (beat) score and analyst upside confirm the fundamentals are inflecting now, not just on paper.

  6. 06

    Composite score + AI research card

    Factors are z-scored and blended into a composite; the top-ranked names are selected per market. Each pick gets the same AI research card as the other strategies (Perplexity brief + 3-model council vote) before any order. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and the missing verdict is visible on the pick page.

Two tranches: one signal feed, two disciplines

Each name gets one of five signals — Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, Strong Sell — with a 1–10 strength coefficient that sorts within a level. Both tranches read the same signals and the same endorsed ranking; they differ in which buckets trigger a buy. The aggressive sleeve buys Strong Buy and Buy names; the conservative sleeve acts only on Strong Buy when adding names and holds through plain Buy — a stricter entry bar that can mean a smaller book, targeting lower volatility. Both sleeves exit on the same Sell / Strong Sell signals: the tracks differ in the entry bar, the volatility target and the per-name stop, not in how quickly they exit.

Aggressive
Acts on Strong Buy and Buy when adding names, so it deploys sooner and runs the fuller book. Targets roughly 22% annualised book volatility (a soft setting, calibrated forward on the paper track) and enforces a hard −25% per-name stop. Exits on Sell / Strong Sell.
Conservative
Acts only on Strong Buy when adding names — a stricter entry bar that can mean a smaller book. Targets roughly 14% annualised volatility (a soft setting, calibrated forward) and enforces a hard −15% per-name stop. Exits on the same Sell / Strong Sell signals as the aggressive track — the sleeves differ on entry, risk envelope and stop, not exit speed.
Rebalance cadence
Signal-driven, rebalanced daily, hold-until-exit (anti-churn): each name is held until its signal says exit, so turnover stays low. The live paper track and a credible backtest are still accumulating.
Universe
US and European growth equity tagged to a structural-supply bottleneck theme