BN · rank #20 · 2026-09-09
HWM
NYSE · $92.33B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.15 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +13.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +21.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +20.5% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.80 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 2.87× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +45.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +8% |
| Market cap (USD) | $92.33B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Howmet Aerospace is a precision fastener and engineered-components manufacturer with embedded, patent-protected positions across virtually every major commercial and military aircraft platform nose-to-tail.
Rationale
HWM's ~1,150-patent portfolio, sole-source qualifications on composite-sensitive and lightning-protection fasteners, and 24% YoY revenue growth with 340bps EBITDA margin expansion directly validate the bottleneck-solver thesis — customers cannot easily requalify alternatives without disrupting certified airframe designs.
Material risks
- 1Large aerospace OEMs (Boeing, Airbus) or defense primes insourcing fastener manufacturing or qualifying alternative suppliers would directly erode HWM's embedded platform positions, which are the structural foundation of the bottleneck thesis.
- 2HWM's growth trajectory is tightly coupled to commercial aerospace build-rate ramps; any production slowdown at Boeing or Airbus — already a recurring risk given Boeing's recent manufacturing struggles — would compress both revenue growth and the margin expansion embedded in raised 2026 guidance.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.