BN · rank #11 · 2026-09-09
TSM
NYSE · $2.28T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.40 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +34.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.81 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.90× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +25.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.28T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant contract chipmaker, operating as the de facto sole-source manufacturer of leading-edge AI accelerators and advanced CoWoS packaging for customers including NVIDIA.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver signal is strongly reinforced: TSMC holds a structural chokepoint in AI chip manufacturing with committed CoWoS orders consuming >50% of 2026 capacity, 98%+ yields peers cannot match, and raised full-year guidance to 40%+ revenue growth — this is contracted backlog, not sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Geopolitical escalation or expanded U.S./China export controls targeting Taiwan fabs or advanced node equipment could disrupt operations and sever access to key customers, directly invalidating the sole-source thesis overnight.
- 2NVIDIA or hyperscalers accelerating in-house advanced packaging or diversifying to Samsung/Intel Foundry at scale would erode TSMC's de facto monopoly on CoWoS capacity and compress the pricing power underpinning the 67.7% gross margin.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.