BN · rank #3 · 2026-09-08
AM
PARIS · EUR · $24.67B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.09 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +12.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.97 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.08× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +29.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $24.67B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Dassault Aviation (AM:PARIS) manufactures Rafale multirole combat jets and Falcon business jets, carrying a €45.4 billion backlog of 291 aircraft as of H1 2026.
Rationale
A ~10-year Rafale production backlog at current cadence, €10.1 billion in customer advances, near-zero debt-to-FCF of 0.08, and a 0.97 forward PEG directly validate the bottleneck-solver thesis — Dassault holds sole-source capacity in scarce European combat aircraft with locked-in revenue visibility.
Material risks
- 1H1 2026 order intake collapsed to €2.9 billion from €8.1 billion in H1 2025, and the collapse of Europe's next-generation fighter program (FCAS/SCAF) removes a key future growth vector, raising the question of what replenishes the backlog beyond the current Rafale book.
- 2Production cadence remains the binding constraint — if Dassault cannot accelerate Rafale output meaningfully, revenue growth of 10.5% may prove optimistic against a backlog that is long in duration but slow to convert, compressing the realized upside.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.