BN · rank #6 · 2026-09-11
R3NK
XETRA · EUR · $4.91B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.17 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +18.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +7.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +7.2% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | — |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 4.57× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +50.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | -38% |
| Market cap (USD) | $4.91B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
RENK Group AG is a specialist manufacturer of transmissions and drive systems for Western heavy armored vehicles and naval platforms, with defense now comprising ~74% of group revenue and a €7.4 billion order backlog providing ~5x LTM revenue coverage.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solver thesis is directly reinforced — RENK holds program-specific qualifications as one of very few qualified drivetrain suppliers for European rearmament, with a €7.4B backlog, 48% YoY defense order intake growth, and H1 2026 EBIT up 29%, confirming it is a structural capacity constraint rather than a sentiment trade.
Material risks
- 1The -38% last EPS surprise signals execution risk in converting a record backlog into earnings — if production ramp or cost absorption lags order intake, the 50% analyst upside and margin expansion thesis unravels despite strong top-line visibility.
- 2Debt-to-FCF of 4.6x leaves limited buffer if defense procurement cycles slow or soft orders (€3.6B of the €7.4B backlog) fail to convert to firm contracts, compressing FCF precisely when capex for capacity expansion is highest.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.