BN · rank #5 · 2026-09-04
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $159.72B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.08 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.6% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.84 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +15.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $159.72B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense conglomerate co-producing CFM narrow-body jet engines and supplying defense electronics, making it a structural chokepoint in global single-aisle propulsion and European defense subsystems.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's quasi-sole-source position in LEAP/CFM56 propulsion and defense optronics/navigation, with H1 2026 revenue up 19% YoY, raised full-year guidance, and long-dated service contracts providing the revenue visibility the strategy requires.
Material risks
- 1GE Aerospace or a major airframer (Airbus/Boeing) accelerating in-house propulsion or MRO capabilities could erode CFM International's pricing power and Safran's high-margin aftermarket economics, the core of the bottleneck thesis.
- 2A sharp air traffic demand reversal or OEM production cut (e.g., Boeing MAX delivery freeze) would compress LEAP deliveries and aftermarket shop visits simultaneously, hitting both growth and margin expansion assumptions.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.