BN · rank #11 · 2026-09-08
TSM
NYSE · $2.22T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.41 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +34.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.79 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.90× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +28.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.22T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant contract chipmaker and sole-source manufacturer of leading-edge AI accelerator chips and advanced CoWoS packaging, sitting at the structural chokepoint of the global AI compute supply chain.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is strongly reinforced by TSMC's de facto sole-supplier position for NVIDIA's CoWoS-packaged ASICs (>50% of 2026 capacity committed), 40%+ guided revenue growth, a 0.79 forward PEG, and 28.8% analyst upside — all consistent with a structural moat being monetized, not merely a sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Customer concentration and in-house risk — NVIDIA and hyperscalers consuming the majority of CoWoS capacity creates binary exposure if any single anchor customer accelerates internal packaging development or shifts volumes to a qualifying alternative foundry.
- 2Geopolitical disruption — Taiwan-specific export controls or military escalation could impair fab operations or sever access to key equipment and customers, representing an existential tail risk that no financial moat can fully hedge.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.