BN · rank #9 · 2026-09-08
MTSI
NASDAQ · $20.54B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.61 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +35.7% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +23.5% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +20.7% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.05 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 3.12× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +47.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +4% |
| Market cap (USD) | $20.54B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
MACOM Technology Solutions designs high-performance analog semiconductors and photonics ICs for data center, telecom, and defense applications, with growing exposure to AI-driven optical interconnect demand.
Rationale
Q3 FY2026 revenue of $342.2M (+35.8% YoY) directly confirms the quant's 35.7% forward revenue growth signal, and Q4 guidance implying ~$1.97–$2.03 non-GAAP EPS suggests continued acceleration driven by AI data center optical and RF bottleneck components where MACOM holds specialized positions.
Material risks
- 1Customer concentration in hyperscaler optical interconnects creates substitution risk if vertically integrated players (e.g., Broadcom-designed or in-house merchant silicon) displace MACOM's laser driver and TIA components, eroding the sole-supplier moat the bottleneck thesis depends on.
- 2Debt-to-FCF of 3.1x limits financial flexibility if the AI capex cycle softens and revenue growth decelerates sharply, compressing the margin expansion story that underpins the 23.5% forward net margin assumption.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.