BN · rank #3 · 2026-09-11
AM
PARIS · EUR · $25.00B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.01 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +12.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.98 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.08× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +27.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $25.00B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Dassault Aviation is a French aerospace group producing Rafale combat jets and Falcon business jets, sitting on a €45.4 billion backlog representing roughly a decade of production at current cadence.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced — Dassault holds a sole-supplier position in high-end European combat aircraft with ~208 Rafale on backlog, €10.1 billion in customer advances, and no near-term competitor able to replicate Rafale's export-certified, combat-proven capability at scale.
Material risks
- 1H1 2026 order intake collapsed to ~€2.9 billion from €8.1 billion in H1 2025, and the collapse of Europe's next-generation fighter program (FCAS/SCAF) removes a key long-term growth vector, raising questions about post-backlog demand replenishment beyond the current decade.
- 2Rafale production cadence remains constrained by supply chain capacity, meaning revenue recognition is backlog-paced rather than demand-paced, and any further delivery slippage would compress the already-modest 7.9% H1 operating margin while the French corporate tax surcharge adds near-term earnings headwind.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.