BN · rank #4 · 2026-09-09
AM
PARIS · EUR · $25.21B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.06 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +12.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.97 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.08× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +27.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $25.21B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Dassault Aviation is a French aerospace company producing Rafale multirole combat jets and Falcon business jets, sitting on a €45.4 billion backlog representing roughly a decade of production at current cadence.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solver thesis is directly reinforced — Rafale output structurally lags demand, Dassault holds sole-source position on Europe's most battle-proven export fighter, and a 208-aircraft Rafale backlog with €10.1 billion in customer advances provides the revenue visibility and pricing power the strategy requires.
Material risks
- 1H1 2026 order intake collapsed to ~€2.9 billion from €8.1 billion in H1 2025, and the collapse of Europe's next-generation fighter program (FCAS/SCAF) removes a future growth pillar, raising the question of whether the backlog runway is a ceiling rather than a floor.
- 2Production cadence is the binding constraint — if Dassault cannot accelerate Rafale deliveries meaningfully, revenue growth of 10.5% may prove optimistic against a backlog that is long in duration but slow to convert, compressing the fwd_peg re-rating catalyst.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.