BN · rank #6 · 2026-09-07
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $160.42B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.09 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.6% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.84 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +14.4% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $160.42B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense conglomerate co-producing CFM narrow-body jet engines and supplying defense electronics, making it a structural bottleneck in single-aisle propulsion and European defense subsystems.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is strongly reinforced by Safran's quasi-sole-source CFM/LEAP position with high switching costs, long-dated service contracts, and rising European defense budgets driving visible multi-year backlog conversion, consistent with 19% H1 2026 revenue growth and raised full-year guidance.
Material risks
- 1GE Aerospace or Airbus/Boeing insourcing propulsion services or accelerating alternative engine programs (e.g., open-rotor or next-gen narrowbody) could erode the CFM installed-base aftermarket economics that underpin the bottleneck premium.
- 2A sharp air traffic demand reversal or European defense budget retrenchment could stall backlog conversion and compress the 18.4% operating margin that justifies the 1.84x forward PEG.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.