BN · rank #4 · 2026-09-08
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $160.46B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.03 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.6% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.84 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +14.5% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $160.46B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense group supplying narrowbody jet engines (via CFM/LEAP), military propulsion (M88/Rafale), and defense electronics, generating €17.6 billion in H1 2026 revenue with an 18.4% recurring operating margin.
Rationale
Safran's sole-source or near-sole-source positions in qualified propulsion and guidance subsystems—where EASA/military certification cycles span years—make it a structural bottleneck in European defense and civil aviation supply chains, directly reinforcing the bottleneck_solvers thesis rather than merely riding sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Heavy civil aftermarket concentration means a LEAP technical issue, fleet grounding, or sharp narrowbody build-rate cut would collapse the earnings engine that funds the defense expansion thesis, severing the financial bridge between the two narratives.
- 2Simultaneous integration of Aubert & Duval and a potential Exail Technologies acquisition alongside the €50M German capex expansion raises execution risk that could dilute FCF and distract management precisely when defense ramp-up demands operational focus.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.