BN · rank #10 · 2026-09-08
EXENS
PARIS · EUR · $3.39B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.34 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +14.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +6.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +6.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | — |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 2.58× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +17.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $3.39B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Exosens is a Euronext-listed photonics group specializing in mission-critical amplification, detection, and imaging technologies for defense night-vision, dual-use, and industrial end markets.
Rationale
The BiNOD U.S. Army delivery order and EIB €140m R&D facility confirm Exosens holds a structural, hard-to-replicate position in night-vision photonics supply chains — a genuine bottleneck-solver with named program visibility and government-backed funding runway.
Material risks
- 1The bottleneck-solver thesis depends on sole/limited-source status in image intensifier tubes; any U.S. Army qualification of an alternative supplier (e.g., L3Harris Elbit JV) would directly erode Exosens' pricing power and program lock-in.
- 2At debt/FCF of 2.6x and a €3.4bn market cap, the stock prices in execution on upper-end guidance; a miss on H2 2026 margins — given 33% EBITDA margins leaving little room for cost surprises — could compress the 17% analyst upside rapidly.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.