BN · rank #5 · 2026-09-07
ALAB
NASDAQ · $53.85B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.77 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +55.8% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +31.3% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +30.7% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.6% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | — |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.15× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +25.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +17% |
| Market cap (USD) | $53.85B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company selling CXL smart memory controllers (Leo) and AI fabric switches (Scorpio) into hyperscale cloud and AI data center customers, directly targeting memory and connectivity bottlenecks in rack-scale AI infrastructure.
Rationale
With 104% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2026, Scorpio X-Series ramping into production, Leo CXL controllers live in Azure M-series previews, and a 55.8% forward revenue growth estimate, ALAB is a textbook bottleneck-solver with near-term revenue visibility anchored in named hyperscaler deployments rather than sentiment alone.
Material risks
- 1Hyperscalers—most critically Microsoft Azure—developing in-house CXL memory controllers and AI connectivity silicon would directly disintermediate ALAB's core Leo and Scorpio product lines, the canonical skip-worthy disqualifier for a bottleneck-solver thesis.
- 2Larger semiconductor vendors (Broadcom, Marvell) commoditizing PCIe/CXL retimers and fabric switches could compress ALAB's 76%+ gross margins as the connectivity layer matures and sole-source pricing power erodes.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.