BN · rank #12 · 2026-09-07
TSM
NYSE · $2.22T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.41 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +34.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.79 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.90× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +28.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.22T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant leading-edge contract foundry, manufacturing advanced AI accelerators, GPUs, and custom silicon for virtually every major fabless chip designer while rapidly scaling CoWoS advanced packaging capacity to ~130,000 wafers/month by late 2026.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solvers thesis is directly reinforced — TSMC is the literal physical chokepoint for AI chip production, with 36% YoY revenue growth, a raised full-year 2026 outlook to 40%+, and a planned quadrupling of CoWoS output that gives concrete revenue visibility tied to structural AI infrastructure demand rather than sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1U.S. export control escalation targeting TSMC's Nanjing fab (revocation of fast-track tool-shipping status) could impair China revenue and force costly equipment write-downs, directly threatening the capital efficiency underpinning the 48% net margin thesis.
- 2The $160B+ combined CapEx commitment (Arizona + ongoing) creates meaningful execution and cost-overrun exposure — if Arizona yields disappoint or subsidies fall short, return on invested capital compresses and the fwd PEG of 0.79x re-rates unfavorably despite strong top-line growth.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.