BN · rank #10 · 2026-09-11
HAG
XETRA · EUR · $10.47B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.39 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +16.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +5.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +4.5% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.6% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.04 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 5.45× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +19.5% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | -3% |
| Market cap (USD) | $10.47B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Hensoldt is a German defence electronics specialist providing sensors, radar, electronic warfare and air/missile defence integration solutions to European armed forces, with ~€2.46B in 2025 revenue and a record €10B+ order backlog.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is reinforced by Hensoldt's role addressing networked air-defence integration gaps—not ammunition supply—evidenced by a 1.9x book-to-bill, €2.8B H1-2026 order intake, and a fwd PEG of 1.04x against 16.5% revenue growth, suggesting the market is not fully pricing the backlog conversion runway.
Material risks
- 1Loss of major contracts (naval programmes already flagged by investors) exposes the thesis to concentration risk, as Hensoldt lacks sole-source status and competes on systems integration expertise rather than an unassailable monopoly position.
- 2Tax loss carryforward exhaustion and rising financing costs already cut 2025 net profit 18% despite strong EBITDA, meaning the 5.1% forward net margin and 5.45x debt-to-FCF leave limited buffer if revenue growth or contract timing slips.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.