BN · rank #4 · 2026-09-11
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $154.83B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.06 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.6% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.80 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +18.5% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $154.83B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense conglomerate whose core earnings engine is the CFM LEAP narrowbody jet engine franchise—spanning OE delivery and a high-margin aftermarket—alongside Rafale propulsion, defense electronics, and a growing autonomous maritime systems business.
Rationale
Safran's sole-source or duopoly positions in LEAP engines, M88 military propulsion, and certified defense electronics create genuine qualification-barrier bottlenecks in European defense and civil aviation supply chains, directly reinforcing the bottleneck_solvers thesis with H1 2026 evidence of 27.9% aftermarket dollar growth and record 18.4% margins.
Material risks
- 1Heavy civil aftermarket concentration means a LEAP technical issue, fleet grounding, or sharp narrowbody build-rate cut would simultaneously collapse the highest-margin revenue stream and potentially trigger OEM compensation obligations, severing the earnings visibility that underpins the bottleneck premium.
- 2The Exail Technologies acquisition and Aubert & Duval consolidation introduce integration execution risk at a moment when management bandwidth is already stretched by the German electronics expansion, and overpaying for sea-drone exposure could dilute the disciplined FCF profile (debt/FCF of 0.55) that makes the valuation defensible at fwd PEG ~1.8.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.