BN · rank #4 · 2026-09-10
AM
PARIS · EUR · $24.99B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +12.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.99 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.08× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +28.3% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $24.99B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Dassault Aviation is a French aerospace group producing Rafale combat jets and Falcon business jets, sitting on a €45.4 billion backlog representing roughly a decade of production at current cadence.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solvers thesis is directly reinforced — Dassault holds sole-source, named-customer Rafale contracts with ~10 years of backlog, €10.1 billion in customer advances, and is structurally capacity-constrained rather than sentiment-driven, exactly the durable scarcity dynamic the strategy targets.
Material risks
- 1H1 2026 order intake collapsed to €2.9 billion from €8.1 billion in H1 2025, and the collapse of Europe's next-generation fighter program (FCAS/SCAF) removes a key future growth vector, raising the question of whether the backlog runway is a ceiling rather than a floor.
- 2Production cadence remains the binding constraint — if Dassault cannot accelerate Rafale output materially, revenue growth is capped by manufacturing throughput rather than demand, limiting the upside implied by the 28% analyst consensus target.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.