BN · rank #13 · 2026-09-10
TSM
NYSE · $2.26T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.41 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +34.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.83 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.90× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +26.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.26T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant contract chipmaker, operating as the sole-source manufacturer of leading-edge AI accelerators and advanced CoWoS packaging at scale for customers including NVIDIA.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is strongly reinforced by TSMC's de facto monopoly on large-format CoWoS packaging (>98% yield, 800K–850K wafers committed to NVIDIA alone), 2nm ramp at 70% CAGR, and management-raised 40%+ revenue growth guidance backed by committed customer orders rather than sentiment.
Material risks
- 1Geopolitical escalation or export-control tightening targeting Taiwan fabs or advanced chip shipments could sever TSMC's access to key customers or equipment, directly invalidating the sole-source bottleneck thesis overnight.
- 2NVIDIA or hyperscalers accelerating in-house advanced packaging or diversifying to Samsung/Intel Foundry at scale would erode TSMC's chokepoint position, though no concrete displacement is evident in current data.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.