BN · rank #3 · 2026-09-04
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $44.21B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.94 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +28.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +32.5% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.15 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.10× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +43.3% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $44.21B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is a leading provider of atomic layer deposition (ALD) and epitaxy tools that are critical, high-specificity process steps at EUV-era logic and HBM memory nodes, making it a structural bottleneck-solver in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
Rationale
Record Q2 2026 revenue of €1.0B (+24% YoY), raised 2027 guidance above €4.6B, 51.9% gross margins, and a fwd PEG of 1.15 on 28% revenue growth confirm the quant signal — ASM is a sole-source-adjacent supplier riding a durable AI/HBM capex cycle, not a sentiment trade.
Material risks
- 1China export-control escalation is the primary thesis-breaker — mature-node China logic/foundry is cited as a current revenue contributor, and incremental restrictions on advanced deposition tool shipments could simultaneously cut near-term revenue and compress the 2027 guidance ASM just raised.
- 2Customer capex concentration in a handful of leading-edge logic/foundry and HBM DRAM customers means any pause or digestion cycle at TSMC, Samsung, or SK Hynix translates directly into order softness with limited diversification buffer.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.