BN · rank #5 · 2026-09-09
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $160.74B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.02 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.6% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.85 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +14.4% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $160.74B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense conglomerate whose core earnings engine is the CFM LEAP narrowbody jet engine franchise—civil aftermarket plus military propulsion and growing defense electronics—making it a structural supplier of irreplaceable propulsion and guidance subsystems across European and global platforms.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's sole-source or duopoly positions in LEAP engines, Rafale propulsion (M88), and certified rotorcraft engines, where qualification barriers and long programme lives create exactly the structural moat the strategy targets, and H1 2026's 27.9% dollar-term spare-parts growth confirms active pricing power at the bottleneck.
Material risks
- 1Heavy concentration in civil LEAP aftermarket revenue means a technical airworthiness directive, fleet grounding, or sharp narrowbody demand correction would simultaneously collapse the highest-margin revenue stream and trigger compensation obligations, directly breaking the margin-expansion component of the signal.
- 2The Exail Technologies acquisition and Aubert & Duval consolidation introduce integration execution risk at a moment when management bandwidth is already stretched by the German electronics expansion, and overpaying for sea-drone exposure could dilute the FCF yield that underpins the low debt-to-FCF score.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.