BN · rank #19 · 2026-09-09
ONTO
NYSE · $17.18B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.17 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.8% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.3% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.76 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 5.83× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +37.4% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +15% |
| Market cap (USD) | $17.18B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Onto Innovation supplies optical metrology and process control equipment critical to advanced packaging, HBM memory, and leading-edge logic fabs, with no viable in-house substitute for its specialized 3D measurement algorithms.
Rationale
Record $1.1B+ backlog, 35% YoY revenue growth, a 14-15% EPS beat, and a 0.76 forward PEG collectively confirm ONTO is a genuine bottleneck-solver in AI chip packaging inspection rather than a sentiment-driven momentum name, with switching costs embedded in tool qualification cycles.
Material risks
- 1Larger rivals KLA and Nova can outspend ONTO on R&D and customer co-development, risking displacement at next-node qualifications where ONTO lacks a formal sole-source position—the moat is process IP and switching friction, not contractual lock-in.
- 2Export-control tightening on advanced semiconductor equipment to China could abruptly shrink the addressable order pool and pressure the backlog that underpins the entire revenue-visibility thesis.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.