BN · rank #8 · 2026-07-20
EXA
PARIS · EUR · $2.41B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.01 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +27.4% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +1.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +0.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.52 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 2.49× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +15.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.41B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Exail Technologies is a vertically integrated French defense-tech group specializing in autonomous maritime drones, underwater robotics, and fiber-optic inertial navigation systems sold to navies and defense primes across ~80 countries.
Rationale
With a €1.1B backlog (~75% defense), 40% Q1-2026 revenue growth, a 0.52x forward PEG, and proprietary FOG-based navigation technology directly addressing European naval mine-countermeasure and seabed-warfare bottlenecks, the bottleneck-solver thesis is structurally grounded rather than sentiment-driven.
Material risks
- 1Large naval primes or key customers (e.g., Thales, Naval Group) could internalize autonomous underwater vehicle and inertial navigation stacks, directly eroding Exail's specialist moat — the single most credible thesis-breaker given consolidation trends in European defense.
- 2Export control tightening or sanctions on sensitive maritime robotics and GPS-denied navigation equipment could disrupt shipments across the 80-country customer base, delaying backlog conversion and compressing the near-term revenue ramp.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.