BN · rank #18 · 2026-07-20
NVMI
NASDAQ · $13.91B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.26 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +21.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +29.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +29.2% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.46 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 4.12× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +37.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +6% |
| Market cap (USD) | $13.91B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Nova Ltd is a semiconductor process control and metrology company supplying optical, X-ray, and chemical measurement systems to advanced logic, memory, and packaging fabs globally.
Rationale
NVMI's record Q1 2026 results, driven by Nova Metrion X-ray adoption and AncoScene traction in high-aspect-ratio and 3D-complex nodes, directly confirm the bottleneck-solver thesis — increasing metrology intensity at advanced nodes creates durable, qualification-locked demand that supports the 21.6% forward revenue growth and 37.9% analyst upside embedded in the signal.
Material risks
- 1KLA or Onto Innovation displacing Nova's single-source position in advanced DRAM or HBM packaging metrology through broader portfolio leverage or aggressive pricing, which would erode the qualification-cycle moat that underpins revenue visibility.
- 2A deceleration in AI/HBM-driven memory capex — Nova's primary growth engine in recent quarters — could expose the cyclicality of its revenue base given limited disclosed numeric forward guidance beyond Q1 2026.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.