BN · rank #4 · 2026-07-20
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $156.19B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.35 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +9.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +25.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +23.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.31 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.65× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +7.2% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $156.19B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a diversified aerospace and defense group co-owning the dominant narrowbody jet engine franchise (CFM LEAP) and holding sole/critical-supplier positions in A320 landing gear, missile propulsion, and European interceptor programs.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's participation in the Bliksem EXO exo-atmospheric interceptor consortium, active missile propulsion capacity expansion, and Rafale engine production ramp in India — all structural, contract-backed supply constraints rather than sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Commercial jet engine supercycle deceleration is the primary thesis-breaker — LEAP deliveries and aftermarket utilization underpin the margin expansion and FCF that justify the 2.3x PEG, and a demand air pocket would simultaneously compress revenue growth and erode the defense-offset narrative.
- 2European defense procurement timelines for Bliksem EXO and missile propulsion remain politically contingent, meaning the defense bottleneck revenue uplift could be slower to materialize than the quant model's 9.6% forward growth implies.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.