BN · rank #16 · 2026-07-20
TSM
NYSE · $2.07T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.26 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +29.0% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.7% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.01 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.82× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +30.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.07T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant advanced-node contract foundry, generating ~66% of revenue from AI/HPC customers and aggressively scaling CoWoS advanced packaging capacity from ~13K to ~130K wafer starts per month by late 2026.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by TSMC's sole-source position in sub-7nm logic and CoWoS packaging, Q2 2026's 33.7% YoY revenue growth, a 77% beat on EPS, raised Q3 guidance to $44.6–$45.8B, and a forward PEG of ~1.0x against ~29% revenue growth — pricing in little of the structural scarcity premium.
Material risks
- 1Geopolitical escalation or expanded U.S./China export controls targeting Taiwan-based advanced-node production could disrupt order flow or force customer redesigns around alternative supply chains, directly breaking the sole-source bottleneck thesis.
- 2Hyperscaler customers (Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom) accelerating in-house advanced packaging or logic capacity — or Samsung/Intel Foundry closing the process gap — could erode TSMC's pricing power and sole-source status at the margin before CoWoS capex is fully absorbed.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.